We are addressing the key questions of:
| Median | Upper 50 CI | Lower 50 CI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak Hospitalizations | 2,788.00 | 5,038.00 | 1,804.00 |
| Deaths by August 1, 2020 | 7,256.50 | 13,071.00 | 3,609.75 |
| Detected Illnesses by August 1,2020 | 317,578.50 | 521,537.75 | 158,543.75 |
| Total Illnesses by August 1, 2020 | 1,459,691.50 | 2,603,557.75 | 740,866.50 |
| Proportion of Cases Detected (%) | 22.22 | 26.27 | 18.05 |
| CFR Based on Observed Illnesses (%) | 2.36 | 3.12 | 1.92 |
| CFR Based on Total Illnesses (%) | 0.52 | 0.71 | 0.37 |
| R0 - before social distancing | 2.55 | 2.60 | 2.46 |
| % Reduction in Social Contacts (March 15 - ) | 53.76 | 50.86 | 58.74 |
Dashed line = Maximum possible capacity (i.e., total licensed hospital beds, ICU beds, ventilators) in L.A. County
Demonstrating model fit against COVID-19 data for Los Angeles, for the following variables:
COVID-19 data is shown as black dots in the figures below.